GW7 shortlist:Tevez and McClean need replacing

I just wanted to take a look at a few players who I am considering to import into my team this week or the next, and also have a look at how good of an idea is it to get rid of Tevez. With a good look at the possible replacements for him including a closer look at Ba who is slowly turning into a must own again. 

Tevez and the other mid price strikers:

Carlos Tevez- He is one of the most owned player in the game and also the most transferred out player currently. With a home fixture vs Sunderland and nice fixtures after that coming up it is a big dilemma for myself weather to keep him or get rid. 

His shot conversion rate calculated based on last 2 seasons( for the 2010 season I will discount the goals and shots used for Pens)

• GW1-6: Shots taken:17(2.8PG) Goals scored:3
• GW1-6: Key passes made:7(1.2PG) Assists made:2
• Normal rate of shot conversion:3.34 shots per game, 7.7368 shots per goal
• Normal rate of key pass conversion(2010-11): 1.7  key passes per game 5.167  key passes per assist

After doing the numbers I am surprised how poor of a striker he is for FPL managers especially considering the low number of shots he takes for a striker with a low conversion rate. But as he did not play in the UCL he now seems likely to start on the weekend. I personally will keep him for now, but if I would be getting rid I would consider these options along with the majorities favorite Suarez.

Defoe

• GW1-6: Shots taken:32(5.3PG) Goals scored:4
• GW1-6: Key passes made:7(0.8PG) Assists made:5
• Normal rate of shot conversion: It is hard to find the normal amount of shots he takes per game as last seasons have been filled with appearences off the bench, 6 shots per goal is the number for his last season and I feel that this is achievable for him.
• Normal rate of key pass conversion: same case with the normal key passes per game, 7.5  key passes per assist

If there was no Adebayor on the Tottenham bench to suggest there could be rotation for him I would consider him as the best cover for the Tottenham attack.

Dimitar Berbatov- For normal rate of conversion I will look at his stats from all PL seasons for him. Pen taker for Fulham without Petric on the pitch could add a few goals to his name, so that should also be taken into account when judging his potential.

• GW1-6: Shots taken:13(4.3 PG)Goals scored:2
• GW1-6: Key passes made:9(3PG)Assists made:1
• Normal rate of shot conversion: 2.525 shots per game(a lot of sub appearences for United- so skewed ), 4.38 shots per goal
• The assist numbers this season are impressive and most of the play goes through him unlike in his past seasons- this could be an addition to his game.

If declared fit on friday than he will be my transfer in for this week and probably the man with the captains armband.

Demba Ba- I took a different approach with Ba as his goal output seems to be depending on his positioning on the field. So I wanted to look at his stats for the first half of last season(before the Cisse arrival) when he was playing as the central striker and scoring all the goals.

• GW1-6: Shots taken:20(3.3 PG)Goals scored:6(3.3 shots per goal)
• Conversion rate from first half of last season: 3.2 shots per game, 4 shots per goal

If we look at the stats than there is a small hope for owners that he can possibly keep up the scoring with a slight dip expected in the next few game, but that was expected with Newcastle facing Man United @home and Sunderland away in the next 2 games. I really dont advise buying or captaining him now because of the 2 rough fixtures, but if you own him than dont get rid and if you are considering Tevez out for him than id give Tevez 2 or 1 more games and do the transfer than.

Nikita Jelavic

GW1-6: Shots taken:14(2.8PG) Goals scored:3

GW1-6: Key passes made:9(1.8PG) Assists made:1

Normal rate of shot conversion(based on last season): 2.7 shots per game, 5.1(last season total) 4.625(for Everton in the PL) shots per goal

I personally own him at present but I still tend to think that Baines is enough Everton cover and having an offensive Everton player is not a must. For managers looking for a safe option, than I consider him the best one- as he has no sort of risk related to him and he will score on a constant basis- just don't expect scores like last week too often.

Rickie Lambert

• GW1-6: Shots taken:12(2PG) Goals scored:4
• GW1-6: Key passes made:7(2.3PG) Assists made:1
• Normal rate of shot conversion:2.36 shots per game, 3.68 shots per goal

His normal conversion rate is impressive, but that was in the Championship- so I still feel that he is slightly over- performing at the moment especially with 2 of his goals coming vs the 2 big Manchester clubs.

I find it impossible to rank them very clearly but I will try

1. Ba- he simply is the best striker available IMO- but it is a long term move because of his poor fixtures in the next 2)
2. Berbatov(if fit)
3. Suarez- the most expensive option and Short term, but he is a man in great form after scoring this week in europa league while only playing some minutes in the second half.
4. Defoe/Jelly- Defoe has got better fixtures at the moment and is able to get more explosive scores from time to time, but he has Ade looking over his shoulder. But Jelly could be the smart option out of all of them, but smart is boring and that is the reason for his low rank.

This next chapter is about my quest to find a replacement for McClean, I left out Fellaini and Michu from this discussion since I already own Michu and have 2 Everton players. But I will later try to rank these 5 players.

Gaston Ramirez

• GW1-6: Shots taken:9(3PG) Goals scored:1
• GW1-6: Key passes made:7(2.3PG) Assists made:1
• Normal rate of shot conversion: 1.8 shots per game, 7.425 shots per goal
• Normal rate of key pass conversion: 1.6  key passes per game 13.2  key passes per assist

Kevin Nolan

GW1-6: Shots taken:21(3.5PG) Goals scored:3

GW1-6: Key passes made:8(1.3PG) Assists made:1

Normal rate of shot conversion(taken from 10/11 season in prem): 2 shots per game, 5 shots per goal

Normal rate of key pass conversion: 0.9  key passes per game 27  key passes per assist

Looking at the 2 players I think Nolan actually is the better option, mainly because he is the best offensive cover for WHM, but I think there is no harm in having both players.

Gervinho

• GW1-6: Shots taken:9(2.6PG) Goals scored:1
• GW1-6: Key passes made:7(1PG) Assists made:1
• Normal rate of shot conversion(in Ligue 1): 2.7 shots per game, 6.3 shots per goal
• Normal rate of shot conversion(in PL season 11-12): 1.4 shots per game, 6.5 shots per goal
• Normal rate of key pass conversion(in Ligue 1): 1.3  key passes per game 4.55  key passes per assist
• Normal rate of key pass conversion(in PL season 11-12): 1.3  key passes per game 6  key passes per assist

I am strongly considering him if he can keep his position up front, even if he gets moved to the wing from time to time which he is likely to do since Giroud will get a chance at some point

To compare all of the 5 I would prefer Michu and Nolan to all other options since they are nailed on in their positions and the best options for their offense. Gervinho and Fellaini are the risky options with Ramirez the best differential.    Others who I am considering but are not mentioned are- Carzola, Silva, Sterling, Aguero, Rooney, Dempsey, Morrison


Hope it was a good read, dream team for this GW will be out soon. Follow me on twitter @KristjanPulma for more of the same!!!