Eden Hazard is the best player in the FPL so far, and there are many Hazardless managers who are nervously observing how his price rises even on the wake of a blank GW for Chelsea. One of those managers happens to be me, so there is need to analyze weather this is just another bandwagon bound to run out of steam or the new coming of the dominant FPL midfielder.To start it off lets look at some statistics Hazard has produced so far.
- GW1and2 Shots taken:6 Goals scored:1
- GW1and 2 Key passes made:8 Assists made:6
- Normal rate of shot conversion: 2.8 shots per game, 8.85 shots per goal(with no penalties included as he took 9 last year and probably wont take many this year, the number would be 5.32 if I would include penalties)
- Normal rate of key pass conversion: 2.4 key passes per game, 4.56 key passes per assist(I included 4 assists for penalties won as Chelsea have earned an average of 7.2 penalties in the last 5 years, I feel that this year the number would be above average, but no more than 12. Taking that number into account and also the average number of fouls per game in the PL which is approx. 12(based on 10/11 season) and the number of average fouls per game on Hazard which is 3.5 on the average of his last season and current 3 game sample. So I made an educated guess of 33% of penalties for Chelsea will be won by Hazard, meaning 4)
So if we in light of all these numbers I tried to estimate his season totals in assists and goals.I will use his current key pass and shots on goal numbers as a basis for this analysis and as the sample size is only 3 games against sub par opponents I would advise taking the results with a pinch of salt. This is merely to find out how he would perform if he would continue at the same pace in terms of making key passes and taking shots with his normal conversion rate for both. This also would mean that he would take part in all 38 games.
- The results were as follows(both numbers rounded out): 13 goals and 23 assists.
As he will most likely face some rotation due to cup games and CL, especially with all the attacking mids Chelsea have, I find the more likely result to be something in the lines of 10 goals and 18 assists.
These numbers would most likely make him the top scoring midfielder with a score of something around 225-250 depending on bonus, as hes points would mostly consist of assists than bonus maybe not on par with his skills so that may hinder the scores a bit. Saying all that I believe once Lamps retires and this kid takes charge of pen duty we will have the rebirth of the dominant FPL mid in our hands.
My personal suggestion: GET HIM GW4 or 5 the latest and keep!
Hope this helped to clear some of the air around this kid and follow me on twitter @KristjanPulma
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