The International break is upon us and many fantasy mangers are using their wild cards. An excellent time to look back on the first 3 game weeks and see who have over- and underperformed. Hopefully this will help some people with some key decisions in their wildcard teams. First up the players who are bound to have a drop-off in production.
Yaya Toure- Unless you are expecting him suddenly to play more forward than last season than look out for that drop off, especially once Silva returns to form-which should happen soon.
- GW1-3: Shots taken:6 Goals scored:2
- GW1-3: Key passes made:9 Assists made:1
- Normal rate of shot conversion: 2 shots per game, 10.7 shots per goal
- Normal rate of key pass conversion: 1.7 key passes per game 9.066 key passes per assist
Than there is also Michu and Dyer 2 players who are continuing to over-perform. Are they having a super half-season like Ba, Papiss Cisse or Sigurdsson had last year or will they drop off before January. Michu in fact has so far scored with every shot on target 4 of 4, this percentage will certainly drop a bit. But saying all this, there is no way I would get rid of either of those players even with Pablo Hernandez threatening Dyers game time as he is a RM as well. But I would not go out of my way getting either of these players in my team, but if you can than the next 5 games of A Villa(A), Everton(H), Stoke(A), Reading(H), Wigan(H) still offer a good opportunity for them to continue their run.
And now the hard part, as players bound to perform are harder to predict as many players produce most of their goals and assists in short spurts of form rather than constant output of points. But if a player is strongly underperforming it raises the odds of these spurts of form starting next gameweek.
Id like to give a special section here for Tottenham players. Because despite all the hate against AVB, I still think his players will start producing at some point. Maybe it is because I own Adebayor or because I am nostalgic and can't see fit players not regaining their normal scoring form. So lets look at them 1 by 1.
Gareth Bale- This kid is the streakiest player in the Premier League, going on scoring runs and dry spells of epic length. He was one of the top scoring midfielders in the PL last season, despite not scoring since January. Hopefully linking up with Adebayor again will set him off. Now lets look at the stats and see just how full the bubble is.
After investigating the stats we see that he is not really underperforming, but I still predict a goal and an assist for him in the next 2 game weeks.
Adebayor- He has great potential as Tottenham need goals and he will also most likely take penalties for them. What worries me is that he has failed to register a single shot in 65 minutes so far. I guess we will have to wait for the next game to assess him further.
Sigurdsson- This man has potential, but has been subbed off early or benched in every game so far. So far it looks like AVB does not trust this man too much, and I would not like to own him before things settle down and he starts getting more minutes.
Defoe- This one is a strange case as the man is getting played in multiple positions in the front 4 and AVB seems to like him, but I personally cant wonder why. We need to see how he fits in with Adebayor starting.
Darren Bent- Bent started the season with great expectations as Lambert taking over the coaching reigns had us expecting goals all over. Surprisingly all of the big names for Villa have let us down, but lets look at what the stats say.
Considering that last year Bent spent under McLeash, we can predict that his shots per game and key pass numbers will remain higher than they were last year, but shot conversion rate is very likely to remain similar. Bent faces 2 home games vs Swansea and West Brom and a trip to leaky Southampton in the next 3. Considering he also takes penalties I would not be at all surprised to see him score at least 2 goals in the next 3 GW-s. An ownership of 1.6% makes him an even tastier option.
Adam Lallana- He has taken 10 shots in the first 3 game weeks, so he is bound to put 1 in the back of the net soon, as last season he got a goal with every 6.5 shots. But I am not being too bullish with this one as the man often takes shots from deep and the Premier League is a bit different than the Championship.
Papiss Cisse- I mean this guy was fairly lucky last year to do as well as he did, so I will look at more than 1 season for a normal conversion rate.
The worrying part here is the low number of shots Cisse is taking right now, but even with these numbers he should have scored by now. I wonder if Ba and Cisse together just is not working and one of them could be benched or put back on the wing for them.
Nikita Jelavic- Another wonder kid from the second half of last season. Sadly I cannot find key pass stats for him from last season. That is sad as he has completed 1.7 key passes per game this season which is very high for a striker and he also has a decent number of assists from his previous seasons-15 for 70 games started in the past 2 seasons.
If you look his goal numbers than this figure will seem faulty, but that is because he took penalties for Rangers and also 1 for Everton last season and I did not account the shots or the goals for those, because Baines will take them for him this season unless he is injured.
So enjoy the rest of the international games people and be prepared for the return on FPL. Follow me on twitter @KristjanPulma for more of the same.
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