Curious Case of Eden Hazard

Eden Hazard is the best player in the FPL so far, and there are many Hazardless managers who are nervously observing how his price rises even on the wake of a blank GW for Chelsea. One of those managers happens to be me, so there is need to analyze weather this is just another bandwagon bound to run out of steam or the new coming of the dominant FPL midfielder. 

To start it off lets look at some statistics Hazard has produced so far.

• GW1and2 Shots taken:6 Goals scored:1

• GW1and 2 Key passes made:8 Assists made:6

• Normal rate of shot conversion: 2.8 shots per game, 8.85 shots per goal(with no penalties included as he took 9 last year and probably wont take many this year, the number would be 5.32 if I would include penalties)

• Normal rate of key pass conversion: 2.4 key passes per game, 4.56 key passes per assist(I included 4 assists for penalties won as Chelsea have earned an average of  7.2 penalties in the last 5 years, I feel that this year the number would be above average, but no more than 12. Taking that number into account and also the average number of fouls per game in the PL which is approx. 12(based on 10/11 season) and the number of average fouls per game on Hazard which is  3.5 on the average of his last season and current 3 game sample. So I made an educated guess of 33% of penalties for Chelsea will be won by Hazard, meaning 4)

So if we in light of all these numbers I tried to estimate his season totals in assists and goals.I will use his current key pass and shots on goal numbers as a basis for this analysis and as the sample size is only 3 games against sub par opponents I would advise taking the results with a pinch of salt. This is merely to find out how he would perform if he would continue at the same pace in terms of making key passes and taking shots with his normal conversion rate for both. This also would mean that he would take part in all 38 games.

•  The results were as follows(both numbers rounded out): 13 goals and 23 assists.

 As he will most likely face some rotation due to cup games and CL, especially with all the attacking mids Chelsea have, I find the more likely result to be something in the lines of 10 goals and 18 assists.
These numbers would most likely make him the top scoring midfielder with a score of something around 225-250 depending on bonus, as hes points would mostly consist of assists than bonus maybe not on par with his skills so that may hinder the scores a bit. Saying all that I believe once Lamps retires and this kid takes charge of pen duty we will have the rebirth of the dominant FPL mid in our hands.


My personal suggestion: GET HIM GW4 or 5 the latest and keep!


Hope this helped to clear some of the air around this kid and follow me on twitter @KristjanPulma
for more FPL related stuff!!!

GW1 review the underperformers

As promised I will now take a quick look at who should have scored more points and have the potential to do so, this may unveil some hidden gems or differentials. Or just big guns who have been not getting enough attention.

I will use the same method as I did in the last article to rate performances, so check it out if something remains unclear.

To start off this post I will add 2 players who may seem to have underperformed but really did not. Despite being impressive goalscorers in their pre Premierleague career, they have been horrible during there time in the PL. This could be down to their teammates being unable to feed them with quality passes, or being able to turn their key passes into assists. But largely it is down to the quality of their final touch, as both players are impressive on the ball, but fail to insert that quality in to their finale touch of the ball.

!I will post this as a warning, that you cannot find gems by purely looking at stats, and watching the games and assessing their pass and shot quality is also helpful.!

Perennial underperformers

Adel Taarabt:

• GW1: Shots taken:8 Goals scored:0
• GW1: Key passes made:5 Assists made:0
• Normal rate of shot conversion: 3.3 shots per game, 44 shots per goal
• Normal rate of key pass conversion: 2.2  key passes per game 19.8  key passes per assist

I actually think that he will do better than last season and will be investing in him when fixtures improve for QPR, but not as good as the potential his stats show us.

Luiz Suarez:

• GW1: Shots taken:8 Goals scored:0
• GW1: Key passes made:2 Assists made:0
• Normal rate of shot conversion: 4.1 shots per game, 11.636 shots per goal
• Normal rate of key pass conversion: 2.1  key passes per game 21.7  key passes per assist

Suarez is a very good player in real life and is more likely to do better than Taarabt, but he is also 3.5mil more expensive and takes up one of the valuable striker spots. So I find it hard to understand why people are investing in him unless the fixtures get too good do ignore.

GW1 review the over-performers

My plan is to look at GW1 and see who over performed and who underperformed. Looking at efficiency and general luck involved in FPL points scored. This should help to decide which bandwagons are worth riding and which are not. I will use last years statistics as a viewpoint for normal conversion rate on shots and key passes, with some exceptions.

Lets start with the over-performers... 

Ivanovic:
  This man will not score 24 points in a game week again. So there is no need to jump on his bandwagon now. A. Cole could do just as well going forward. And as Chelsea are looking like they will sign a new RB soon Ivanovic may soon find himself under threat of rotation.

• GW1: Shots taken:3 Goals scored:2
• Normal rate of shot conversion: 0.8 shots per game, 7.33shots per goal

Collins:
  9 points from a West Ham defender wont be a regular incident, so there is no point paying the extra 1 million for Collins over Demel.

GW1-6 fixture analysis

With the opening game of the Premier elague season just 3 days away, I will be taking a look at teams with the best fixtures for the first 6 gameweeks.To find the team with the best fixtures I used a simple method of rating every game of every game week from best to worst. The team with the worst fixture got a rating of 20 and the best fixture got 1.

Top 6 scores were the following: Swansea- 47, Aston Villa-49, West Ham-50, Manchester United-51, Manchester City-54, Newcastle United-54. 

Honorable mentions: Sunderland-58, Tottenham, WBA, Wigan and Chelsea with 59.

FPL player prices released( midfielders and strikers)

I will try to make this shorter than the overview of defenders and just post the best options on each team.

Man City

Midfielders-
David Silva at 10 mil is again the top man here and they guy you want when investing in Citys midfield. Unless Samir Nasri at 8.5 mil can cement his place in the starting lineup and avoid rotation. That would make him a better pick than Silva IMO, mostly because of the 1.5 mil cheaper price. Also Yaya Toure at 8 mil has shown potential in the pre-season and there are reports saying that Silva is too unfit to start the season. This news could make Yaya a nice pick as he would play further up the pitch.

Strikers-
Aguero at 11.5 mil is the best pick here, as he is the only nailed on striker for City. The case with other players is similar to Nasris case. Because if either Tevez or Balotelli both at 9 mil, can nail down a starting role than they will be the guy to put in your team. Especially Balotelli as he is their nr.1 penalty taker.

Man United

Midfielders- 

The United midfield looks like a minefield for fantasy, the best chance for a player to be in the starting 11 every week is Kagawa at 8.5 mil in my opinion. At least the guy will have a chance to nail down the starter role in the beginning of the season. As Ferguson rarely brings in guys for 20 mil who are not an upgrade on someone already playing. But as I said the situation is a minefield and should be avoided during the start of the season, to observe and see who the nailed on guys are. I actually think that there wont be any nailed on players, and there will be rotation year round, especially as it looks like 1 more player (maybe Lucas Moura) could be coming in.

Strikers-

Wayne Rooney at 12 mil is the man if you want offensive cover for United. Probably the only nailed on player for them, on penalties and set- pieces. He is also a bit of a sleeper this year as he will play more games as the main striker with Kagawa behind him.

FPL player prices released(Goalkeepers and Defenders)

FPL prices are finally out, but there is still no point in doing full team reviews as there are probably more off season moves to be made by managers. But a quick overview of the more interesting prices released will be a nice warmup.First up Goalkeepers and Defenders. I will darken up all the important spots and even underline players who I think are the best defenders available right now. So you would not have to read through all of my babble :)

Goalkeepers 

• It looks like there wont be any 4 mil budget keepers this year as all starting keepers are at least 4.5 mil.

• Joe Hart is the most expensive keeper at 7.0 and someone I will never have in my fantasy team

• All last years budget keepers are now overpriced(Vorm 5.5, Krul 5.5) as teams like Newcastle and Swansea are unlikely to repeat last years defensive showing. Especially Swansea after switching coaches and losing Caulker

• De Gea is surprisingly 6.0 mil, as I expect him to play more games this season.Looking like the best keeper out there in fantasy right now.

• Best dirt cheap options seem to be: Ruddy 4,5 mil as Chris Hughton seems to have a more defensive approach than the previous coach had, Green 4,5 mil as QPR have invested some money in the back by bringing in Fabio and the new keeper, If either Begovic 4,5 mil or Sorensen 4,5 mil manages to nail down a starting spot they may be worth a look as well as Stoke will always be relying on defense for wins, or Federici( Reading) 4,5 mil as they are the team with least goals conceded from the clubs that have risen to the PL.

• As the goalkeeper rotation may cost you anywhere between 9-10 mil, the one big team keeper and 1 4.0 mil non playing keeper strategy might be an option  for this year. De Gea, Reina, Szczesny or even Krul for the believers in another great season from Newcastle might be options here. Also there are 4 mil defender options available for Reading, QPR, Norwich and no nailed on cheap options for the big teams so that might make that extra 0.5 or 1 mil spent on the expensive keeper even more reasonable.

Defenders

I will look at teams defenses separately here as there will be a time where you could want a defender from any team.

Man City 

Kompaly 7.5mil, Lescott 6.5 mil, Clichy, Kolarov, Zabaleta, Richards all 6mil and Kolo Toure the possible budget option at 5.5 mil. I never like super expensive defenders unless they have superior goal threat like Vermaelen or Baines. So no Kompany for me, but that leaves us with a bunch of players who could all be rotated. The players I like here are Zabaleta(especially with Richards playing for team GB at the olympics) and Clichy who seemed to be the favored full backs in the crunch time of last season. There is a need to examine preseason closely as City have a decent run of opening fixtures including 2 home games against easier opponents QPR and SOT and 2 away games against STO and LIV who are both not known for their scoring.

Man United 

 Vidic and Evra 7 mil- not someone I will be looking at as I think they are overpriced. Ferdinanand, Evans and Jones 6 mil, Smalling and Rafael 5.5 mil. Looking at all the possible rotation here for the below 7 mil options I see even more of a point in going for De Gea in goal.   

Chelsea 

John Terry 7 mil, A.Cole, Cahill, Ivanovic, Luiz all come in at 6.5 also Cech in goal is 6.5. This makes A. Cole the obvious player to pick here, as he is the only 6.5 defender who is nailed on.

FPL price tease

Premierleague.com have released a small teaser in to FPL player  prices https://twitter.com/premierleague/statuses/223053062988767233.

Wednesdays tease: Hazard 9.5 m, Pavel Pogrebnyak 5.0 m, Park 6.0 m

• Hazard at 9.5 could be decent value if chelsea can get the team to click early. Decision: watchlist
• I am not very excited about the other two but Pavel Pogrebnyak at 5.0 could be good value if Reading turn out to be any good. But I am taking a wait and see approach with him, after he failed to get any minutes for Russia in Euro 2012 despite the poor performances of their front man Kerzhakov. Decision:watch closely, could be a nice punt for GW1 dough, considering Reading have the DGW.
• Whereas Park I will probably avoid completely, because at 6.0 there are bound to be better players. Park wont take any set pieces and looking at his 4 goals and 4 assists with 24 games started and 11 games off the bench, he has never been a high scorer or assist provider, even for a great team like United. Decision: avoid 

The teaser is suggesting that the game will launch soon, time to get back in the FPL zone.